ATAF: Organise

Blog post only

Yesterday, I posted about Brazil’s recent apparent success on getting topics on the international agenda. Although the results are patchy at best, that was a remarkable turnaround for a country that historically seemed to just go its own way on taxes, but seemed to have very little success in convincing other countries to join.

Taking a step back, it seems we are going through a period where a lot of historically marginalised countries seem to be getting more influence on international tax, which is in principle a good thing. I often criticize their tactics and specific policy proposals for being misguided (because often they are), but their policy goals deserve fair consideration. Brazil’s particular success has not been much in view and indeed, in a recent poll I did (https://x.com/taxleonard/status/1800097307586896125), it seemed to come dead last which I felt was unfair.

The winner of that poll was China, which obviously has a lot of economic power and plays a very traditional diplomacy game of doing a lot of its influencing behind closed doors. Perhaps that is still the most effective way, even if Anglosaxon countries and the EU have increasingly sought out media attention on international tax matters (though those countries face domestic policy pressures that are very different from China). India came in the third spot and though India’s international tax policy often spills over into the public domain (eg making a dozen reservations against the Pillar 1 drafts), India can come across a bit isolated. Part of this is political style, but it’s an old piece of political advice to get others to share your policy goals and make them push the things for them.

The other surprising contender for most successful actor from developing countries is ATAF, a collection of African states that collaborate in international tax matters. Each of these countries would probably have insufficient weight to sway much of the debate on anything. But as they organised, pooled resources and economic weight, they were able to actively contribute to debates on all international tax matters, sometimes sway tax policy and become a key player in decisions such as increasing the standing of the UN on tax matters. The success of ATAF celebrates the power to “Organise” to gain influence (as advocated too in this Nigerian pop song: https://open.spotify.com/track/2wgvxtggKVzPkl0smF2UzI?si=ca48f5075cad4da1).

It’s a story that’s as old as time itself and a story that probably sounds more appealing than the other strategies outlined here. International tax matters are not a free exchange of ideas or policy goals, they are politics. The ability of parties with a weaker hand to organise is realpolitics, that somehow levels the playing field a bit. And as I said at the start, that is in principle a good thing.

Obvious disclaimers: this is not advice. These views are my own and do not necessarily represent my employer.